The Viyug

By Dr. Pravesh Kumar Gupta

In recent years, relations between India and Armenia have improved considerably.  The fundamental cause for the growing bilateral relations is the rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape in the South Caucasus region.  The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020 was directly influenced by Turkey. Over the past ten years, Azerbaijan and Turkey have developed stronger defence ties as Baku has made enormous investments to establish military dominance over its far poorer neighbour, Armenia.

Azeri military budget has increased exponentially from USD 463 million in 2004 to USD 2.996 billion in 2022. Turkey provides training to the officers in Azerbaijan’s armed forces and has become the country’s third-largest supplier of weaponry after Israel and Russia. Due to Ankara’s supplying of Bayraktar TB2 drones, Azerbaijan emerged winner in this war, placing Yerevan in a more constrained geopolitical position.

Turkey’s growing influence is challenging for India as Ankara is a close ally of Pakistan and has been propagating anti-India policies. Turkish President Erdogan has raised the issue of Kashmir on multiple forums especially of United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). Recently in the 78th session of the UNGA, Erdogan raised the Kashmir issue.  And now that Azerbaijan has reclaimed control of Nagorno-Karabakh, the regional dynamics in the South Caucasus are set to shift significantly. Turkey’s clout will grow much further. Given the current circumstances, increased Indian presence in the region is critical for expanding the outreach of its geopolitical interests in the region.

India and Armenia have centuries-old historical relations, which became the foundation for contemporary relations.  Despite the convergence of interests, bilateral relations remained below potential until recently when India’s External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar, visited Yerevan in October 2021, marking the first visit by an Indian Foreign Minister since the two nations established diplomatic relations in 1992. 

The defence export deal signed between these countries has provided the required strategic momentum for bilateral relations.  Some areas require immediate attention in order to raise the level of bilateral collaboration. Agriculture, medicines, and information technology are three areas where New Delhi and Yerevan’s collaboration might be expanded. India is regarded as Pharmacy of the world, so one of the major areas of the cooperation between Armenia and India could be on pharmaceutical sector. Also, New Delhi being the emerging leader in IT sector can share its expertise with Yerevan. Bilateral trade is limited due to the lack of direct land connectivity between the two countries, therefore, connectivity requires immediate attention.

The evolving regional geopolitics of the South Caucasus have put India-Armenia relations to the test.  In 2017, Turkiye, Pakistan, and Azerbaijan signed a Trilateral Ministers Agreement to promote defence cooperation and strengthen the existing bilateral military assistance arrangements. As Azerbaijan’s all-weather ally, Turkey also strives to establish itself as a regional leader and wants to increase its influence in Central Asia.  The entry point for Turkey’s advance into Central Asia is Azerbaijan.

If New Delhi continues to be ignorant for a while longer, there is a possibility that an anti-Indian agenda will intensify.  Therefore, a key area of convergence between India and Armenia is the need to counter the disruptive goals of Turkey and its close partner, Pakistan. 

Moreover, On November 10, 2020, following a war, a trilateral ceasefire agreement resulted in a truce, which allowed Azerbaijan to retake all of the occupied areas around Nagorno-Karabakh as well as one-third of the actual territory. Following the 2020 war, ceasefire violations in Nagorno-Karabakh and along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border have persisted, resulting in sporadic but persistent casualties.

Recently, in September 2023, Azerbaijan launched an offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, claiming it to be an anti-terrorism operation.  This has led to the surrender of Armenian separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh and the dissolution of this independent republic, thus giving Azerbaijan complete control over this region.  Armenia has accused Russian peacekeepers of not playing their assigned role, while Russian authorities have been agreeable to the outcome.